Two invented scenarios can finish near one another while taking very different routes.
A final number compresses a story
The Investment Lab chart begins at 10,000 virtual credits and plots ten year-end values. The final balance tells you where the model ends. It does not show the journey on its own. Looking at the chart makes early declines and later recoveries easier to notice, especially when comparing scenarios with different fictional return sequences.
Know what the low point means
The displayed lowest balance is the smallest value among the initial balance and the ten modeled year-end observations. It is not maximum drawdown, a worst possible loss or an intrayear low. The lab does not model prices between those yearly steps. Giving that measurement its exact meaning avoids asking it to answer a question it was not designed for.
Compare within the model
Run the same allocation in A difficult decade and Drop, then recovery. Read the input lists alongside both results. Next, change the allocation in just one of those scenarios. Keeping a comparison controlled helps identify which assumption changed the path. The model includes no withdrawals or extra contributions, so it cannot answer questions about their timing.
Leave room for uncertainty
Every path in the lab is fixed and fully invented. Real outcomes are uncertain, and the game’s short list of scenarios cannot represent all possible events. The exercise supports understanding of a calculation and its limits. It does not estimate the probability of a gain, identify a suitable product or replace the information needed for a real financial decision.
Try the idea in the money playground, or explore another lesson in the notebook.
